Nature-based Solutions for flood risk reduction: A probabilistic modeling framework

Author : DavidLallemant, PerrineHamel, Mariano Balbi, Tian Ning Lim, RafaelSchmitt, Shelly Win
Publications : Scientific paper
Published Date : 17 Sep,2021
 
 

Abstract

Flooding is the most frequent and damaging natural hazard globally. While nature-based solutions can reduce flood risk, they are not part of mainstream risk management. We develop a probabilistic risk analysis framework to quantify these benefits that (1) accounts for frequent small events and rarer large events, (2) can be applied to large basins and data-scarce contexts, and (3) quantifies economic benefits and reduction in people affected. Measuring benefits in terms of avoided losses enables the integration of nature-based solutions in standard cost-benefit analysis of protective infrastructure. Results for the Chindwin River basin in Myanmar highlight the potential consequences of deforestation on long-term flood risk. We find that loss reduction is driven by small but frequent storms, suggesting that current practice relying on large storms may underestimate the benefits of nature-based solutions. By providing average annual losses, the framework helps mainstream nature-based solutions in infrastructure planning or insurance practice.

 
Eco system:
Other
Tags:
NbS
Geographic Region:
Global
Hazards:
Floods
Journal:
One Earth
Pages:
11
Volume:
4
Year:
2021

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER

Get the latest updates on our work delivered to your inbox.